- Raoul Pal says today’s crypto market mirrors 2017 due to early-stage macro growth and a declining U.S. dollar.
- He highlights rising institutional investment, including sovereign wealth funds, as a key driver extending the cycle into 2026.
Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and well-known for his macro insights, sees strong similarities between today’s crypto cycle and the 2017 bull run. He points to a mix of macro signals and Bitcoin’s current price pattern that, in his view, are setting the stage for another major rally. If things keep lining up the way they are, Pal thinks this run could have serious momentum and might even push through into 2026.
A big part of Pal’s view comes from his own business cycle model, which shows the global economy still in the early stages of picking up steam. That part of the cycle usually lines up with rising asset prices, especially for riskier bets like crypto. Add to that the recent 9% slide in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and the case gets even stronger. A weaker dollar often pushes investors to look elsewhere, and Bitcoin tends to be one of the first places they go.
Pal also highlights the surge in global liquidity, driven by ongoing support from central banks and the delayed rollout of rate cuts. He thinks this mix of factors is setting the stage for what he calls the “banana zone,” a wild phase in the market where prices can go vertical, similar to the kind of parabolic action we saw in past bull runs.
One big difference this time around is the growing involvement of sovereign wealth funds and major institutions. During a recent trip to the Middle East, Pal said he met with government-backed groups that aren’t just buying Bitcoin for their balance sheets, they’re also building out serious blockchain and AI infrastructure. This wave of institutional interest, he believes, could be the backbone that helps keep this crypto run going longer than the ones we’ve seen before.
While plenty of analysts are already calling for a market top, Pal isn’t jumping the gun. He’s staying level-headed but leans bullish, saying today’s setup feels more like the early days of 2020 than the final stretch of a hype cycle. In his view, there’s still room for solid upside before things get overheated.
Pal keeps it real, big pullbacks are just part of how this space works. The swings can be rough, sure, but anyone who’s been around knows it’s nothing new. When the bigger picture stays solid, these drops aren’t a red flag—they’re just part of the natural flow of a market that moves fast and doesn’t wait around.
What Pal’s really saying is that crypto has matured. It’s not just running on hype or internet buzz anymore. It’s starting to track with what’s happening in the real world—things like money supply, interest rates, and how governments respond to markets. That shift matters. If the current setup stays on track, the next year or so could bring serious action in how deep crypto pushes into the system. Institutional money is coming in, adoption is building underneath, and the momentum feels different this time.
