- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts the current crypto bull run could extend beyond the usual four-year cycle.
- Strong institutional inflows, better regulation, and maturing infrastructure are driving a longer, more stable market trend.
Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise Asset Management, is pushing back against the usual idea that crypto moves in strict four-year cycles. In a recent breakdown, he told investors to brace for a longer bull run this time, one that could roll right through 2025 and maybe even past that.
This take comes as Bitcoin holds steady around major support levels after the halving, with overall market vibes shifting toward cautious optimism. But Hougan says this isn’t just another hype-driven rally. He believes what’s happening now is being driven by bigger, more lasting shifts in the crypto space.
Traditionally, crypto has followed a pretty familiar four-year cycle, usually kicked off by a Bitcoin halving, followed by a strong surge, and then a steep correction. But Hougan thinks that pattern might not hold up this time around. He believes several key forces are coming together to reshape the way the market move
Beyond the Usual Boom and Bust
Firstly, institutional adoption is picking up serious momentum. Big players like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton have either rolled out or are in the process of getting the green light for crypto-focused ETFs. These funds are opening the door for Bitcoin and Ethereum to reach deeper, more stable pools of capital, ones that don’t move like typical retail investors chasing quick gains.
Second, while regulation is still a work in progress, the overall landscape is way clearer than in past cycles. The SEC giving the nod to some spot Bitcoin ETFs, along with steady movement on crypto laws in both the U.S. and Europe, shows that regulators are beginning to see crypto less as a wild gamble and more as a legit, maturing asset class.
Third, the infrastructure is finally starting to match the hype. Layer-2 networks, smoother on-ramps, tokenization tech, and DeFi getting plugged into traditional finance are all setting the stage for real, long-term growth, not just quick speculative runs. All of this is making it easier for new users to jump in and giving existing ones more reasons to stick around.
Hougan sees the current bull cycle, which kicked off in 2023, staying strong well into 2025. He’s not ruling out a pullback in 2026, but says it probably won’t hit as hard—or feel as final—as the crashes we’ve seen in earlier cycles. The classic boom-and-bust rhythm might be fading, making room for more drawn-out, steadier trends that look a bit more like what you’d expect in traditional finance.
Hougan’s view hints that crypto investors might need to shift how they think about timing the market. Rather than rushing to cash out at the first big hype wave, the smarter move now could be sticking it out and thinking long-term. For both traders and builders, that opens the door to more opportunities—but also puts more pressure on staying flexible and keeping up as things evolve.
It might be too soon to say the four-year crypto cycle is officially over, but Hougan’s perspective is something to pay attention to. If the rhythm really is shifting, it’s not just investors who’ll need to adjust—the whole ecosystem, from developers to regulators, will have to evolve along with it.
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