- Crypto market volatility anticipated due to Trump-Harris debate and CPI report.
- Risk reversals favour puts; institutions increasing bullish positions for 2025.
The crypto market is on edge this week as it anticipates potential volatility surrounding two major events: the Trump versus Harris debate on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on September 11. According to QCP Broadcast, while the crypto market has stabilised following last week’s downturn, implied volatility remains high as traders brace for possible market movements.
Risk reversals until October are currently skewed towards puts for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), indicating cautious sentiment among investors regarding potential downside risks. Despite this, some institutional players are using the market dip as an opportunity to bolster their long-term bullish positions, with significant buying activity observed in March 2025 call options.
Moreover, QCP’s official statement highlights a cautious optimism in the market. Despite recent price fluctuations, institutional investors are showing confidence by increasing their positions in longer-dated bullish trades. Notably, there has been significant interest in December 2024 and March 2025 calls, suggesting a belief in potential recovery and growth.
Trump Vs Harris Vs Crypto
In a related analysis, Bernstein Research positions Bitcoin as a “Trump trade,” speculating that the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election could profoundly impact the cryptocurrency market. Analysts suggest that if Donald Trump wins, Bitcoin could surge to $80,000-$90,000 by the end of Q4 2024. Conversely, a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris might see Bitcoin test lower levels, around $30,000-$40,000, given her less pronounced stance on cryptocurrency.
Bernstein’s analysts point out that while Trump has been vocal about supporting the crypto industry, Harris has yet to address crypto in her policy statements. The differing political stances on cryptocurrency are expected to create a wide delta in market outcomes, with current odds indicating a slight edge for Trump.
The crypto market’s resilience amid regulatory challenges underscores its potential for future growth, with Bernstein forecasting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2033. As the debate and CPI report approach, market participants remain vigilant, navigating through high volatility with strategic positioning and a keen eye on political developments.
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