- Trump leads Harris in betting odds for the 2024 election.
- Traditional polls show Harris ahead, but historical biases affect predictions
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has surged ahead in betting odds for the upcoming presidential election, holding a 16% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris on the decentralized prediction market platform, Polymarket. As of Tuesday night, Trump’s odds of winning stood at 57.9%, while Harris’ chances were at 41.8%. This market has seen significant activity, with over $1.92 billion in total volume for bets on the 2024 election winner.
Harris held the lead for much of September, but Trump reclaimed the top position at the beginning of October, widening the gap between the two candidates. This shift in betting sentiment contrasts with traditional polling, where Harris leads with an average of 48.5% to Trump’s 46.1%, according to a national poll aggregate from FiveThirtyEight. Analysts at Bernstein caution that historical data suggests polls may have underestimated Trump’s support in the past.
Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts also raised questions about potential bias in Polymarket, suggesting that the platform may favor Republican candidates like Trump, who has publicly championed cryptocurrencies. Nonetheless, they emphasized that users on these platforms tend to place bets based on perceived probabilities rather than personal bias.
Competing Crypto Strategies
In a notable development, Trump announced on Tuesday that World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol he supports, successfully sold over 610 million tokens during its public sale that commenced the same day. Meanwhile, Harris, who has remained relatively silent on crypto matters, recently expressed her commitment to establishing a regulatory framework aimed at protecting Black men who invest in cryptocurrency. This initiative is part of her broader proposal to enhance wealth-building opportunities for Black communities.
As the election race heats up, the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency continues to shape the discourse, with both candidates navigating an evolving landscape of voter sentiment and investment priorities.
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