- XLM must hold the $0.251–$0.266 support range to preserve its bullish momentum; a drop below $0.229 would negate the wave structure.
- A confirmed breakout above $0.334–$0.357 could propel wave (v) toward $0.6010 and potentially $0.8610 over the long term.
Stellar (XLM) remains caught in a tightening range after its impulsive rally, with technicals suggesting the market is at a turning point. On May 12, the token briefly touched $0.334 before retreating, which analysts link to the formation of an ABC corrective wave. The rejection at the 0.236 Fibonacci level initiated a wave A pullback, with wave B now likely targeting the $0.306–$0.310 resistance range.
While intraday activity reveals buyers defending the $0.276–$0.281 zone, the broader setup still leans bearish.Prominent analyst Ali cautioned on X that if Stellar fails to hold $0.27, it risks a 14% correction down to $0.23.
Regardless of this warning, Stellar’s 24-hour trading volume spiked 88% to $270M, signaling increased investor interest and potential short-term resilience.
$0.251 Support Is Crucial for $XLM
While zooming into the lower timeframes, the corrective ABC pattern is more evident. The C-leg appears to target the $0.266–$0.251 range, which is a critical confluence zone marked by the 0.618
Also, regarding the fibonacci retracement and an ascending trendline from April, if this area fails to hold strongly at $0.251, XLM could drop toward $0.229, the previous wave (ii) low, which also coincides with the 0.786 retracement.
However, unless bulls regain control, the structure remains fragile. Key support levels include $0.281, representing the wave A bottom; the $0.266–$0.251 area, which blends both Fibonacci and trendline signals; and $0.229, which marks invalidation of the bullish structure.
Resistance, meanwhile, remains at $0.306–$0.310 (likely cap of wave B), and the higher targets lie between $0.334 and $0.357, the following key Fibonacci extension levels.
$0.357 Breakout or Final Exhaustion?
From a macro perspective, Stellar concluded a W-X-Y correction and appears to be in a five-wave impulse pattern, now within wave (v). There’s potential for an extension toward $0.357, a primary Fib level from the broader downtrend. However, signs of waning momentum are surfacing.
The divergence in RSI, particularly the failure to confirm the highs of wave (3), suggests exhaustion and raises the possibility that wave (v) may soon terminate. Nevertheless, if bulls can reclaim $0.319 and pierce through $0.334, a rally toward $0.357–$0.360 remains in play. Longer-term targets remain bullish, with projections to $0.6010 mid-term and as high as $0.8610 over an extended timeframe, assuming key levels break favorably.
On the flip side, a breakdown below $0.229 may trigger a consolidation phase or a deeper retracement toward $0.199, thereby invalidating the current wave structure.
