- Polkadot (DOT) is bouncing off a key support zone near $4.40, with momentum indicators showing early signs of a bullish trend.
- If DOT clears its 50-day EMA and momentum strengthens, price targets between $6.10 and $16.00 could be back in play.
Polkadot (DOT) is hovering around a key price zone that’s caught the attention of technical traders. After bouncing off long-standing support between $3.90 and $4.40, DOT shows signs that it might be ready to climb again. Traders are keeping a close eye on popular chart indicators like the RSI, MACD, and EMA—all of which are starting to align in ways that hint at a potential move upward.
Bullish Signals Starting to Surface
DOT is currently trading around $5.10, up over 9% in the past 24 hours—a strong start fueling optimism. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures how overbought or oversold a token is, currently sits at 78. That level typically suggests the asset is overbought, but in this case, it’s more a sign of strong buyer momentum than overheating.
What’s more interesting is the “bullish divergence” on the charts. While DOT’s price had been falling earlier, the RSI started creeping higher—a classic setup that often signals a change in direction. On top of that, the MACD indicator—used to track momentum—looks like it’s about to cross into bullish territory. If that happens, it could spark another rally. The last time this setup played out, DOT surged over 80%.
As for moving averages, DOT is still below its 50-day EMA (around $4.40), but it’s managed to stay above the 200-day EMA, a key level that’s acted as a springboard for price jumps in the past. If DOT breaks above the 50-day mark, it could clear a path to higher targets—first $6.10, then $7.90.
Support Still Intact, But Buyers Need to Step Up
DOT has been stuck in a downward-sloping channel on the daily chart, but the bottom of that channel—around $3.90—has proven solid ground. Trading volume at this level has increased, suggesting that some big players might buy quietly.
Still, momentum is lacking. The ADX, a tool used to measure trend strength, is sitting below 20, which means DOT doesn’t yet have the force behind it for a full-blown breakout. Bulls will want to see that number climb past 25, especially if the price clears the 50-day EMA. If those pieces fall into place, we could look at targets like $7.90, $11.00, and even $16.00 based on past resistance zones and Fibonacci levels.
But there’s a flip side. If DOT slips below $3.80, the current structure will break down, and we could be looking at a drop toward $3.00 or even $2.62, which some bearish models are calling for.
DOT Climbs, But Macro Signals Stay Mixed
While short-term charts lean toward a recovery, long-term forecasts are more mixed. Some analysts expect DOT to average around $2.62 in 2025, while others believe it could rise to $25 or more by 2030, depending on how much traction Polkadot gains in the broader crypto space.
On-chain data adds some nuance. Daily activity on the network is steady, and staking participation has seen a slight uptick—both good signs. However, a recent slowdown in developer activity has raised questions about whether Polkadot can stay competitive against other Layer-1 blockchains that are moving fast.
Beyond DOT’s ecosystem, there are other forces at play. Interest rates, economic policy, and how Bitcoin performs in the coming months will all impact DOT’s path forward. A shift in global risk appetite could lift the altcoin market, and Polkadot with it.
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