- Morgan Stanley upgrades Cipher & TeraWulf, saying their data center shift could unlock infrastructure-style valuations.
- Marathon was rated underweight as profits remain heavily tied to volatile bitcoin prices.
Morgan Stanley has started formally analyzing the three major publicly traded Bitcoin miners. They argued that these miners should not be viewed as a cryptocurrency bet; instead, they should be valued as an infrastructure business. The bank has given overweight ratings on Cipher Mining and Terawulf, while giving Marathon Digital an underweight rating.
Morgan Stanley believes that once the mining company starts building large, powered sites and signing long-term contracts with customers, it starts looking like a real utility and infrastructure company. Infrastructure investors usually pay higher valuations because income is predictable and contracted with less dependence on the bitcoin value.
Why Cipher and TeraWulf Seem to be Positive
Morgan Stanley says Cipher is well-positioned for what he called a “REIT endgame.” If the Cipher leases its building and power capacity to the AI instead of mining, then risk drops, and valuation could increase. Morgan Stanley sees more upside if the transaction happens.
TeraWulf also received a similar positive rating because the management has deep power and infrastructure experience, with the company already having a history of signing hosting and data center agreements. The analyst believes that future sites can be converted from mining to AI tenants.
Why is Morgan Stanley Cautious on Marathon Digital
For Marathon Digital, Stanley took a different position. Morgan Stanley says that the MARA behaves mainly like the bitcoin price vehicle, and it actively tries to increase BTC exposure. So its stock performance depends heavily on the difficulty, power costs, and BTC price swings. Morgan Stanley warns that mining profitability faces pressure from competition and rising energy demands.
These reports arrive when the investors are debating the future identity of Bitcoin miners. Morgan Stanley replies with its report to all the investors that the infrastructure model gives more stability and deserves a higher value than pure mining.
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