- Kalshi is discussing a roughly $1 billion funding round at a $40 billion valuation, an 82% increase from the $22 billion valuation in its May financing round.
- Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in talks to lead the round, with Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group expected as new participants.
Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise approximately $1 billion in fresh capital at a valuation of around $40 billion, an 82% jump from the $22 billion valuation it commanded just three months ago in its May financing round. The deal is expected to close in the coming weeks, with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management in talks to lead. Also joining are Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group as new participants.
Alfred Lin, a co-leader at Sequoia and current member of Kalshi’s five-person board, adds institutional weight to the round. It signals serious confidence in the platform’s trajectory. Early discussions around a potential IPO in the coming years have also begun, though no timeline has been set.
From Prediction Markets to Full Trading Platform
Kalshi’s ambitions have grown well beyond election outcomes and sports contracts. The New York-based firm is pushing to become a one-stop trading platform across a wide range of asset classes. This puts it in direct competition with CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange.
Over the past year, Kalshi has leapfrogged Polymarket in market share, according to Dune Analytics data, as its rival has struggled with the launch of its U.S. platform and an ongoing CFTC investigation. Polymarket, backed by Intercontinental Exchange among others, is separately seeking $1 billion in fresh capital of its own.
Regulators Are Paying Attention
The explosive growth of prediction markets has not gone unnoticed in Washington. Furthermore, platforms now offer contracts tied to financial markets, economic data releases, company events, and public outcomes. It gives traders new ways to take positions that increasingly overlap with traditional regulated markets.
Moreover, the CFTC has been examining how prediction market contracts are structured and whether existing frameworks adequately cover the products being offered. Kalshi’s own path to offering regulated event contracts required years of legal battles with the CFTC before it secured its Designated Contract Market license, a fight that ultimately shaped how the industry views regulatory positioning today.
Binance US recently announced plans to apply for a DCM license in August. In addition, Polymarket filed its own FCM application in July. The regulatory conversation around prediction markets is no longer theoretical; it’s active, contested, and moving fast.
Significantly, a $40 billion valuation for Kalshi three months after a $22 billion raise reflects genuine institutional conviction in prediction markets as an asset class. Whether regulators keep pace with that growth, or move to constrain it, will define the next chapter for the entire sector.
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