- XRPL currently holds 1.1% of $26.44 billion tokenized RWA market share
- AI model suggests $70 billion RWA growth could drive XRP to $134.5 by 2026
- Current 571:1 market cap to RWA ratio assumption may not scale linearly
XRP Ledger currently controls just 1.1% of the tokenized real-world asset market worth $26.44 billion, holding $302.4 million in RWA value according to RWA.xyz data.
With XRP maintaining a $172.6 billion market capitalization, analysts question whether increased RWA market share could drive meaningful price appreciation.
Google Gemini’s analysis explored potential XRP price impacts if the ledger captured 20% of the tokenized RWA market by 2026. The AI model acknowledged numerous unknowns that make precise forecasting impossible, particularly regarding future RWA market growth rates and adoption patterns.
Hypothetical Scaling Creates Massive Valuation Projections
Gemini projected total RWA market growth to $70 billion by 2026, which would give XRPL a $14 billion share under the 20% capture scenario. Using XRP’s current 571:1 ratio of market capitalization to RWA exposure as a baseline, the analysis suggests potential market cap expansion to nearly $8 trillion.
Dividing this theoretical $8 trillion market cap across XRP’s 59.41 billion circulating token supply yields a projected price of $134.5 per token. This calculation assumes the current relationship between RWA exposure and market valuation remains constant as adoption scales.
The model stressed that such projections rely on highly simplified assumptions about linear growth relationships between XRP price and tokenized RWA market share. Real-world dynamics would likely deviate from these mathematical extrapolations.
Linear Growth Assumptions Face Practical Limitations
Gemini highlighted that XRPL’s recent surge to $302 million in RWA value produced minimal XRP price impact, questioning whether larger increases would generate proportional market responses. The disconnect between RWA growth and price movement suggests other factors influence XRP valuations beyond tokenized asset exposure.
The 571:1 ratio between market cap and RWA value may not scale linearly as adoption increases, particularly given the speculative nature of cryptocurrency markets compared to underlying asset values. Market efficiency improvements could reduce this ratio as institutional adoption matures.
Ripple’s emphasis on custody infrastructure as an institutional gateway supports RWA growth potential, though actual adoption rates remain uncertain. The company positions proper custody solutions as essential for regulatory compliance and risk management in tokenized asset markets.
