- Bitcoin surges 8% from $81K low as Fed rate cut odds jump to 67% for December meeting.
- Chair Powell may override divided Fed officials to push through 25 basis point rate reduction.
With the market speculating a Fed rate cut in December, Bitcoin has rallied by more than 8% since it went down below $81,000 on Friday. According to Barclays Research, there is disagreement among Fed officials about the future of monetary policy. Moreover, Chair Jerome Powell might signal another 25 basis point cut.
Powell Could Tip the Scales Toward Rate Reduction
It looks like,Federal officials are quite divided on the issue of monetary policy direction. It has been reported that governors Stephen Miran, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller are in favor of loosening rates at the meeting in December. On the other hand, President of the St. Louis Fed, Alberto Musalem and President of the Kansas City Fed, Jeffrey Schmid are inclined to keep the current range of 3.75-4% without any further changes.
Vice Chair Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee of Chicago, and Susan Collins of Boston are all quite uncertain about the matter and are slightly inclined to suggest holding the rates at their current level. In the meantime, Lisa Cook and John Williams are waiting for the economic data to come in and seem to be agreeable to another rate cut if the situation requires it.
The CME FedWatch tool is currently indicating a 67% chance of a rate cut in December, which is a significant reversal from the 33% probability that was estimated right after Fed Williams’ remarks. According to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, if there is a rate reduction, Powell will have to be very vocal about it and persuade the rest of the committee to go along with the decision since they will be divided.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed worries about inflation and recession after recent increases in the service economy said the increases had nothing to do with imported goods or tariffs.
Bitcoin is trading close to $86,700 after it had made its 24-hour high at $88,038. The trading volume has been increased by 45% during this time. An analyst named Michael van de Poppe has located a CME gap at $85,200 and, therefore, he is expecting a Bitcoin short-term drop of a few hours or days before the latter will resume its upward trend and reach $90,000-$96,000 to establish support.
Another weekly close of more than $86,000, according to Rekt Capital, may give Bitcoin the power to go to $93,000, however, if there is a rejection at that level, the prices could be trapped for a while. The revival momentum may be kept alive by the interaction of positive forces like spot Bitcoin ETFs, whale accumulation, and call options buying until the end of trading year.
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