Bitcoin Bear Market Could Last Another 5-6 Months

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  • According to Grayscale the current bear market might last another 250 days.
  • As of July 12, 2022, the market completed 1,198 days of the current 2020 cycle.

Grayscale investment, the most prominent digital asset manager in the world recently published a report, which predicted the end of the bear trend in the crypto market. The investment manager evaluated the status of cryptocurrency now to earlier bear markets. As a result, Grayscale estimates that the bear market may continue for an additional 250 days or eight months.

Digital assets manager Grayscale stated that;

Bitcoin is 222 days off the all-time high, which means we may see another 5-6 months of downward or sideways price movement.

The report stated that the bear market cycle for cryptocurrencies will last 1275 days or four years. The cyclical bear and bull markets in the cryptocurrency space are like traditional stock markets. The market cycle trend will change when the price drops below market price Grayscale used bitcoin to track the cycle.

Bitcoin price vs Realized price (Source: Grayscale)

Bitcoin Price Cycle

According to Grayscale, the bear market began on June 13, 2022, when the realized price of BTC fell below its market price and the BTC bull surged to its all-time high record, last year was the longest since 2020. 

Price track lane of Bitcoin ((Source: Grayscale)

According to the data, there were 391 days in the 2012 cycle where the realized price was less than the bitcoin market price and there were 364 days in the zone during the 2016 cycle.

The market peaked at 603 days in 2012, and the time it took to reach that point increased by about 180 days for each subsequent cycle, 2016 took 786 days and 2020 took 952 days to the peak. The 2012 and 2016 cycles, which lasted 1,290 and 1,257 days, similarly, from high to low, fell by 73% and 84% respectively in 391 and 364 days.

As of July 12, 2022, the market completed 1,198 days of the current 2020 cycle, which could indicate that there are still almost four months left before the Realized Price crosses back over the Market Price.

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A journalism graduate who is passionate about writing loves to dance and travel currently starts exploring blockchain technology.