- Avalanche (AVAX) rebounded 13%, but key resistance at $20-$21.50. must break for a true uptrend.
- VanEck’s Avalanche ETF filing sparks speculation, but long-term recovery remains uncertain.
Avalanche (AVAX) has rebounded with a 13% rally from its recent low of $15, raising hopes for a potential price surge. However, despite this sharp rebound, the token remains far from critical resistance level at $25-$30. The market is already in a split as some traders see a sustainable recovery, while others believe it is just a temporary relief rally. The next few trading sessions will be a crucial moment as AVAX tests key price levels despite market uncertainty.
Buyers Step In, But Key Resistance Looms
AVAX’s latest upswing was enabled by strong buying activities at the $15 support level, scaling the token to a raise of $18.50. On lower timeframes, technical indicators reflect bullish momentum. The 4-hour RSI has changed from an oversold condition to 55, indicating moderate buying pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD has flipped bullish, which could mean a possible extension of this short-term rally.
However, the bigger picture tells a different possibility. The daily chart reveals persistent resistance levels that AVAX must overcome to confirm a true reversal. The 50-day EMA at $18.80 has repeatedly remained a barrier in AVAX previous recovery attempts. The token’s 200-day EMA at $22.20 is also another major hurdle, which requires a decisive breakout for long term bullish confirmation.
Another challenge worth mentioning is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the $22.50 high to the $15 low currently sits at $18.77, this is a critical pivot zone which determines if AVAX will sustain its bullish trend.
Avalanche ETF Speculation Fuels Optimism
Beyond technical analysis, another fundamental event has occurred to the Avalanche ecosystem. VanEck, a major asset management firm, has recently registered an avalanche ETF in Delaware, which could signal a potential bullish future for AVAX. Although the ETF proposal is yet to be acknowledged and approved by SEC, alongside other recently filed ETFs for XRP, SOL and Litecoin.
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher noted that VanEck’s move suggests asset managers are beginning to see Avalanche as a legitimate contender in the blockchain space. He further revealed via a post on X how AVAX user base and community has increased in Q1 2025.
However, AVAX is still 87% below its historical all-time high of $147.50, which makes a full recovery quite difficult. But if AVAX’s ETF approval becomes a reality, it could significantly boost its price potential.. Although a full technical breakout would help drive long-term interest in the token.
For AVAX to solidify its intended bullish run,it must firstly break through its current $18.50 price, which is a key level which aligns perfectly to its 50-EMA and recent highs. A successful major breakout could send the token toward the $20–$22 range, with the 200-day EMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $22.50 as the next major targets.
On the flip side, if resistance holds and buying pressure weakens, AVAX could face a pullback to $16.50—a crucial support zone. A failure to defend this level might lead to a retest of $15, and a breakdown below that would invalidate the recovery, potentially triggering a deeper correction.
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